KEY
ISSUES
Find out more about the critical issues impacting K-16 students in Alberta — and how we are working to address them.
Post-secondary access is at an inflection point in Alberta.
We need more seats for Alberta students. And we need them now.
THE ISSUE.
Alberta students deserve an ambitous future.
Why are capable Alberta students being turned away by high-demand post-secondary programs in their own province?
With the number of available spaces stagnating and demand growing, competitive averages for high-demand programs such as engineering, nursing and health sciences have skyrocketed in recent years. As a result, more and more high school students in Alberta are being rejected by their preferred programs close to home and are forced to attend universities in other provinces, or reconsider their post-secondary pathway altogether.
BY THE NUMBERS.
7.6%
Increase in competitive average in undergraduate science programs at UAlberta; the average was 85% in 2012 and 92% in 2023.
7.1%
Increase in competitive average in undergraduate engineering at UCalgary; the average was 84% in 2018 and 90% in 2023 (without Math 30-1, averages in those years were 89% & 95%).
1.6x
More undergraduate engineering graduates per capita in Quebec vs. Alberta (2022 data). Alberta is lagging far behind other provinces.
5,985
Net outflow (loss) of domestic undergraduate students from Alberta in 2020-21, the highest among all Canadian provinces.
WHY IT MATTERS.
LACK OF GROWTH HAMPERS INNOVATION
Engineering is a crucial driver of innovation and economic diversification, making slow growth in undergraduate engineering spaces in Alberta particularly alarming. As this map illustrates, from 2013 to 2022, the number of engineering graduates in Alberta grew by a meager 19%. By contrast, other Canadian provinces dramatically accelerated their talent pipelines: British Columbia saw 55% growth, Ontario 49%, and Quebec 42%.
This failure to expand the post-secondary system is leaving Alberta far behind the Canadian average of 38% growth. The bottleneck is particularly alarming for the number of Canadian engineering students in Alberta, which saw only a 9% increase in graduates over the decade. Even more concerning, the growth rate for Canadian female engineering graduates in Alberta was virtually stagnant, increasing by only 2% over the entire nine-year period.
This stagnation creates a critical skills gap that prevents local businesses from innovating and growing, directly jeopardizing the province's commitment to building a competitive, diversified economy. We cannot foster an innovation economy if we are actively limiting the number of highly skilled engineers we graduate.
Growth in Bachelor’s Degree Graduates in Engineering
Source: Statistics Canada. (2024). Table 37-10-0164-01 Postsecondary graduates, by International Standard Classification of Education, institution type, Classification of Instructional Programs, STEM and BHASE groupings, status of student in Canada, age group and gender [Data table].
Bachelor’s Degree Graduates in Engineering - Per 100,000 2013 to 2022
Source: Statistics Canada. (2024). Table 37-10-0164-01 Postsecondary graduates, by International Standard Classification of Education, institution type, Classification of Instructional Programs, STEM and BHASE groupings, status of student in Canada, age group and gender [Data table].
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THE 3,816 SEAT SHORTFALL: ALBERTA’S CAPACITY GAP
Analyzing the number of bachelor's degree engineering graduates on a per capita basis reveals the full scope of Alberta's capacity crisis. In 2022, Quebec produced 1.6 times more undergraduate engineering graduates per person than Alberta. This massive gap illustrates that the province is actively limiting its future workforce.
To match Quebec’s per capita output Alberta’s post-secondary system would need to add approximately 3,816 new undergraduate engineering seats. By failing to fund this capacity, Alberta is not only turning away thousands of bright, qualified local students but is strategically undercutting its own economic potential.
BRAIN DRAIN
The issue of post-secondary capacity has created a damaging exodus of talented Alberta students. Data reveals that Alberta is the largest net exporter of undergraduate students in the country, suffering a net loss of 5,985 domestic undergraduates to other provinces in 2020−21. This represents a worrying and sustained trend away from Alberta's historical position as a net importer of post-secondary talent.
This situation is critical because students who study in Alberta have some of the highest retention rates after graduation in the country, indicating a strong desire to live and work in the province long-term. The core problem is not that graduates are leaving after they finish their degrees; the problem is that they are being forced to leave before they start due to constrained capacity in high-demand programs.
By failing to fund enough undergraduate spaces, especially in key areas such as engineering, nursing and health sciences, Alberta is allowing its most ambitious youth to establish roots in competing provinces like British Columbia and Ontario.
Net Inflows of Undergraduate Students from Other Canadian Provinces, by Province, 2020-21
Source: Usher, A., Balfour, J. & Jeon, J. (2025). The State of Postsecondary Education in Canada, 2025. Toronto: Higher Education Strategy Associates. Link
Projected Indexed Growth of the Population Aged 18-21 for the Period 2021-2035, Alberta vs. Canada
Source: Usher, Alex. (June 6, 2023). "The Alberta Problem." Higher Education Strategy Associates. Link
WATERSHED MOMENT: POPULATION GROWTH
Without a significant investment in enrolment expansion today, the situation will get significantly worse in the near future due to the unique nature of Alberta's steep growth cuve for the university-aged cohort. The projected population growth for the segment of Albertans aged 18-21 is projected to increase by almost 40% by 2035. As shown in the chart at left, this trend is much different than the Canadian average.
THE COST OF INACTION.
WHAT ALBERTA STANDS TO LOSE.
Stifling Innovation
The current skills gap in Alberta is well-documented, directly threatening the province's goal of fostering an innovation and knowledge economy. We know that we need a dramatic, sustained increase in STEM graduates in key areas such as engineering, health sciences and nursing in order to meet surging market demand and replace a retiring workforce. Yet, undergraduate enrolment in these critical fields has consistently failed to keep pace with demand.
Despite calls from industry leaders for a larger talent pipeline, initiatives such as the Targeted Enrolment Expansion funding program rolled out by the Government of Alberta in 2022 have been insufficient, amounting to a temporary "drop-in-the-bucket"rather than a strategic capacity build. The net result is that we are actively restraining the growth of our most dynamic sectors, creating a bottleneck that prevents Alberta businesses from hiring locally and fulfilling their potential. This failure to expand post-secondary capacity directly stifles innovation and compromises Alberta's economic diversification agenda.
Economic Costs
When an Albertan student leaves the province for post-secondary studies, it represents a triple loss for the Albertan taxpayer:
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Lost investment: The investment made in that student's K-12 education leaves the province.
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Lost tax revenue: When the student gets their degree and settles in another province, Alberta loses out on their future income tax revenue.
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Future worker shortages: Since students who leave the province to study are less likely to return, this outflow of students is likely to further exacerbate the skills gap in Alberta
Brain Drain
Alberta has a net loss of undergraduate students each year, which is particularly significant since the opposite was true just a decade ago. According to a September 2025 report "The State of Postsecondary Education in Canada, 2025," Alberta is a net loser of nearly 6,000 undergraduate students annually, with Alberta students leaving primarily to attend post-secondary institutions in Ontario and British Columbia.
This is particularly problematic given Alberta's strong population growth, as it means the province's post-secondary system is not expanding fast enough to accommodate its own demographic bulge. Crucially, studies show that students who leave a province for their post-secondary education are significantly less likely to return, solidifying the talent deficit and compounding our future workforce shortages.
Wasted Potential and Underemployment
When thousands of Alberta's most promising students—those with high 80s and low 90s averages—are blocked from their chosen career paths, their talent is not simply put on hold; it is often misallocated. Forced out of high-demand degree programs, many talented young Albertans settle for less specialized fields or enter the workforce prematurely in jobs that do not match their potential or their K-12 educational investment. This results in an increase in underemployment, where qualified individuals are performing tasks below their skill level.
This is a direct loss for the Alberta economy, reducing the province's overall productivity and innovation capacity, while simultaneously increasing individual financial strain and career frustration.